Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping

This paper presents an economic interpretation of the optimal “stopping” of perpetual project opportunities under both certainty and uncertainty. Prior to stopping, the expected rate of return from delay exceeds the rate of interest. The expected rate of return from delay is the sum of the expected rate of change in project value and the expected rate of change in the option premium associated with waiting. At stopping the expected rate of return from delay has fallen to the rate of interest. Viewing stopping in this way unifies the theoretical and practical insights of the theory of stopping under certainty and uncertainty.     

入美企业如何避开国家安全限制

2008年11月14日,美国财政部发布《2007年外国投资与国家安全法》（FINSA）的实施细则,此项法律旨在改革美国外国投资委员会（CFIUS）关于国外机构收购、兼并和接管美国企业国家安全审查体制。2008年12月,美国财政部发布了有关经过CFIUS审核认为存在国 家安全问题的交易类别指引，正式条例和相关指引传递的明确信息是，在个案基础上，CFIUS将保持其对外国投资交易进行国家安全审查的广泛自由裁量权。那么，美国这些法规的出台将会给我国企业以外资并购的方式进入美国市场带来怎样的影响？     

Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?

Most extant work on prediction of banking crises has utilised global samples, which are in turn dominated by observations from middle-income countries, and rely on a single estimator. However, economic and financial structures as well as the pattern of shocks may differ substantially across regions, while a range of specifications is desirable to check robustness. Accordingly, in this paper we test the implicit pooling assumption in earlier multivariate work on Early Warning Systems using both logit and binary recursive tree specifications separately for crises in Asia and Latin America, as well as the pooled sample. Results suggest markedly different crisis determinants across regions, implying global samples are inappropriate.     

Accessibility and Quality in Higher Education

Accessibility and excellence in university education in Canada are usually seen as mutually exclusive. This study presents data from two independent studies of student progress which show substantial student development regardless of entry level grades. A talent development ideal, which combines accessibility and student development for all those admitted to university education, is suggested as a way of escaping the dilemma.     

企业融资需谨记10大原则

在过去的一年里,由于全球经济衰退的影响,风险投资人们都捂紧了钱袋,对企业而言获得融资变得更加困难.近日,DFJ Gotham Ven-tures公司投资人Mark Davis撰文提醒企业在筹资过程中应该遵循十大法则,这样能大大提高筹资成功率.     

Econometrics and inconsistencies in the national accounts

Economic data are typically inconsistent with national accounting identities, contain measurement errors and are sometimes unavailable. A generalized conditioned least square procedure for the adjustment of data is proposed to deal with these problems. It is shown how the resulting data may be used for FIML estimation of the parameters of dynamic models (and the data themselves) with the aid of the Kalman-Bucy filter. An illustrative application of the proposed techniques to UK data is reported.     

Applied geography in a Third World setting: A research challenge

This paper addresses the particular methodological questions that arise when conducting geographic studies of tourism in the third world. The research environment has both favorable and unfavorable aspects. On the one hand, the scope and opportunity for worthwhile research are almost unlimited. On the other hand, deficiences in background information, in the availability of suitable personnel, and in the economic and social infrastructure can be serious drawbacks to research into human endeavors. The paper draws particular attention to the pitfalls awaiting researchers who are themselves unfamiliar with third world conditions and cultures. A case study is presented, which involves the preparation and undertaking of research into domestic tourism in Nigeria. Together with a local collaborator, the author selected an appropriate topic and methodology, discovering in the process of consultation and questionnaire construction that his perceptions based on foreign experience were sometimes irrelevant to the conditions in Nigeria. The conclusion drawn from this experience is that research techniques imported to the third world from developed countries may need modification before they can be usefully applied.